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AIRBUS has predicted that China and India will be key growth drivers for the aviation industry in the next two decades, as the European planemaker expects the global commercial fleet to double in that period.
In the company’s annual global market forecast, it projects that the world will have 48,230 aircraft in 2043, compared to 24,240 planes at the start of 2024.
About 45 per cent of all new plane deliveries will be replacements for older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.
“The Indian carriers are expanding their international and their widebody operations that had historically been served by foreign carriers,” said Airbus’ head of marketing, Joost Van Der Heijden.
Demand for flying in India has soared as the middle class population in the country increases. Carriers in India have loaded up on new plane orders to meet the appetite.
Market leader IndiGo has more than 1,000 aircraft on order, including a recent agreement for its first long-haul jets, while recently privatised Air India is looking to shore up its fleet and ramp up services across its network.
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The company’s forecast arrives at a time when the planemaker and its rival, Boeing, are struggling to ramp up production.
Many airlines across the US and Europe have also taken a gloomy view on their short-term prospects.
Last Friday (Jul 12), Deutsche Lufthansa cut its profit outlook for the full year as it wrestles with higher unit costs and falling ticket prices.
Delta Air Lines warned last Thursday that US domestic carriers are struggling to fill planes, dragging down ticket prices in a fare war that weighs on profits.
The International Air Transport Association said last month that there is still pent-up demand for cross-border travel in Asia. The region is expected to bring in about US$600 million in profit this year.
That compares with US$14.8 billion in profit in North America, by far the biggest contributor to the earnings of the aviation industry. BLOOMBERG
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